‘포스트 김정일’ 북한 그려보는 분석가들

ANALYSTS TRY TO ENVISION NORTH KOREA WITHOUT KIM
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Byline:CHOE SANG-HUN c.2008 New York Times News Service SEOUL, South Korea -- American and South Korean intelligence reports that the North Korean leader, Kim JongI Il, suffered a stroke raise questions that the North's neighbors have long feared asking. If Kim dies or is incapacitated, who is going to take over the world's most isolated and unpredictable regime, now armed with nuclear weapons? Kim suffered a stroke in mid-August but has recovered enough to talk and walk, South Korean lawmakers told reporters after receiving a briefing by the National Intelligence Service. 서울 – 미국과 한국의 정보기관들이 북한 통치자 김정일이 뇌졸중을 앓았다는 소식을 전하자 북한의 이웃 나라들이 오랫동안 겁이 나서 묻지 못하던 질문들이 새삼 제기되고 있다. 만약 김이 사망하거나 신체 기능을 상실할 경우, 이제는 핵무기들로 무장까지 한, 세계에서 가장 고립되어 있으며 예측 불가능한 정권을 누가 장악하게 될 것이냐? 국가정보원의 브리핑을 받은 한국 국회의원들은 김정일이 8월 중순에 뇌졸중을 일으켰으나 그 후 회복되어 말하는 것이나 보행에 지장이 없다고 기자들에게 말했다. There was "no problem" with Kim, Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted North Korea's No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, as saying in Pyongyang, the North's capital. 일본의 교도통신은 북한의 2인자 김영남이 북한 수도 평양에서 김정일의 상태에 “아무 문제도 없다”고 말했다고 보도했다. Although both American and South Korean officials said it did not appear that Kim's death was imminent, the episode prompted analysts to contemplate the prospects of a chaotic power struggle in case Kim does not recover enough to resume his tight grip on power. 미국과 한국의 관리들은 김정일의 사망이 임박한 것으로 보이지는 않는다고 말하고 있으나, 김의 건강 문제는 분석가들로 하여금 만약 김이 정권을 확실히 다시 장악할 수 있을 정도로 건강이 회복되지 못할 경우에 심히 혼란스러운 권력 투쟁이 벌어질 가능성을 심각하게 검토하게 만들고 있다. Kim took over after his father, Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea, died of heart failure in 1994. In contrast, none of his three known sons or his daughter have emerged as an obvious candidate to take the dynasty into a third generation. "The majority view now is that it will be a collective leadership with some member of the Kim family as a figurehead," said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul. "But situations can easily go in an unpredictable direction. Many top generals and some civilian leaders will probably be overcome by their own power lust, so some serious infighting with unpredictable results is likely, too." Peter Hayes, director at the Nautilus Institute, a research institution based in San Francisco, guessed that "a leader from the current political elite with strong ties to the military" would take over. Such a leader would stress continuity while trying to put a slow modernizing process in place. Hayes and other analysts believe there would be no change in North Korea's nuclear strategy. The inner workings of Kim's regime are shrouded in mystery. Even experts who have spent a lifetime watching North Korea from the outside find it hard to predict its workings. They said that even when Kim dies, it could take days for the news to trickle out. (ⓒ 2008 The New York Times) (ⓒ 2008 www.usabriefing.net)
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